Amid National Conference’s claims of winning all four seats and the BJP’s confidence in securing the fourth seat, voting for the Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu & Kashmir began on Friday morning, with all eyes on the outcome of the fourth seat.
The voting commenced with MLAs arriving at the Legislative Assembly complex to cast their votes at three polling booths set up inside the premises as per news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO)
While the National Conference is expected to easily win three seats, the contest for the fourth seat remains tight, as both the BJP and NC hold an equal number of votes. The BJP’s advantage on the fourth seat diminished after Congress, PDP, and independent MLA Shabir Kulley extended their support to the NC.
Based on current political equations, National Conference candidates have the backing of 57 MLAs, including 41 NC MLAs, six Congress MLAs, six independents, three PDP MLAs, and one CPI(M) MLA. The BJP has 28 MLAs. The choices of two MLAs—Mehraj Malik and Sheikh Khursheed—remain undisclosed. Malik, who is currently in detention under the Public Safety Act, cast his vote on Monday inside Kathua district jail.
The victory of National Conference candidates Choudhary Muhammad Ramzan and Sajjad Kichloo on the first two seats is certain, as each is expected to secure 57 votes against the BJP’s 28.
Unlike the first two seats, a combined election is being held for the third and fourth seats, where three candidates-Gurwinder Singh Oberoi, Imran Dar of the National Conference, and Sat Sharma of the BJP-are locked in a direct contest. The two candidates receiving the highest number of votes in this combined election will be declared winners.
For the third and fourth seats, MLAs of the ruling alliance are expected to split their votes between Gurwinder Singh Oberoi and Imran Dar, while all BJP MLAs will vote for Sat Sharma.
It is anticipated that the National Conference will allocate 29 votes to Oberoi and the remaining 28 to Imran Dar, with the BJP also holding an equal strength of 28 votes.
Unless there is cross-voting by MLAs within the voting bloc constituted for the third and fourth seats by the ruling alliance, the chances of the BJP winning a seat are virtually impossible.
The composition of the voting blocs-specifically, which MLAs will vote for which candidate-within the ruling alliance for the third and fourth Rajya Sabha seats will be interesting to watch—
